Anyone who follows combat sports, or any sports for that matter, loves a good rubber match. In the short history of MMA there hasn't been that many yet, but come Saturday night, we will all be treated to an absolute gem in the form of the third fight in the BJ Penn/Matt Hughes trilogy. Personally, I have been highly anticipating this fight since the moment BJ ended up in the crucifix in the second fight. That fight was over once Hughes secured that position. Actually, that fight was over once BJ incurred the rib injury in the 1st round. I firmly believe BJ was comfortably cruising to yet another win over Matt had he not torn his rib. The first fight wasn't even close with The Prodigy thoroughly dominating from the opening bell to the rear naked choke finish towards the end of the first round.
What makes this fight so compelling is the recent direction both of these fighters' careers have taken. Hughes seems completely rejuvenated as of late with 3 straight wins over 3 highly decorated BJJ blackbelts, notably, Matt Serra, Renzo Gracie and Ricardo Almeida. Amazingly, Hughes even subbed Almeida with an old school wrestling front choke. Hughes has seemed to make decent strides in his striking game as well. Granted, he's far from a world class striker, but it appears that his training with Robbie Lawler (since opening a gym together) has paid dividends. To be perfectly honest, outstriking Renzo doesn't say much in the grand scheme of things but he's definitely shown improvements, especially with regard to low kicks. He caught Ricardo with a nice left hook that dropped him, stunned him, and enabled Hughes to choke him out as easily as he did. That might actually be the first time in over 50 fights that Matt has hurt someone with his stand-up. All things considered, at Hughes' age and after this many years in the game, he deserves respect for continually advancing his skillset. As BJ and others have said, Hughes hasn't officially received a BJJ blackbelt from a legitimate instructor but technically he is on or very close to that level. What's especially impressive about Hughes' current streak of wins is that prior to that he seemed to be pretty much done as a fighter. His competitive fire appeared as extinguished as Michael Jackson's pedophile playground at Neverland. He got destroyed twice by GSP and also got dominated by Thiago Alves, losing 3 fights in a four fight span. Here we are, a few years later and the country boy is close to contention again. I'm very impressed and I am far from a Matt Hughes fan.
While Hughes' career is on the upswing, BJ's is on a serious slide. He's on a two fight skid, both losses at LW to Frankie Edgar. This is only the second time he's lost two in a row. Edgar is an amazing fighter, so there's no shame in that. The question is, was BJ really at his best in those fights? Only BJ can answer that. To me, he just didn't look like he was completely there mentally. He had somewhat of a blank look on his face and his killer extinct, or lack thereof, was non-existent. Frustration was the only emotion you could read from him. Frankie deserves much of the credit for that being the case, but a lot has to do with timing. BJ has shown mental lapses in the past and this could very well have been one of those periods where he wasn't at his sharpest. He's a complex dude who lives very differently than most people do. His world in Hawaii is both a blessing and a curse. Hawaii has a sizable MMA community and BJ is the king of it. Most times the king is surrounded by "yes men". A venue change in training camp and a serious upgrade in training partners might be a good idea for him. Its hard to push yourself, which seems to be the case for BJ. And its hard to get better when you are always sparring with inferior opponents. His brother and manager, JD, can only do so much to rectify those situations.
Technically, this is a very intriguing match-up. As aforementioned, Hughes has shown solid BJJ skills and beaten 3 consecutive, high level blackbelts, but he is definitely inferior to BJ in that facet of the game. Matt is great at using his strength to create submission opportunities. In contrast, BJ is much more technical in his approach and incorporates a ridiculous level of flexibility to execute his techniques, particularly his defense and sweeps. Their approaches are night and day. On the striking side of things, BJ is a much better boxer and striker overall, but as mentioned, Hughes has made improvements as of late. The gap there isn't as vast now as it was in the prior two fights. If Hughes can land a few solid low kicks, it could drastically change this fight. The problem with that is the susceptibility to a counter right hand from BJ, which is arguably his best punch. BJ's striking didn't fair well in the Edgar fights because of Frankie's excellent speed, footwork and head movement. Hughes has nothing close to that so BJ should be able to land some significant shots. Matt has the obvious wrestling and strength advantage but can he exploit BJ there? BJ's takedown defense was legendary prior to the fights with Edgar. After seeing how easily Frankie took him down, that perception has completely eroded. So was it Frankie's speed that facilitated those takedowns or was it BJ being mentally "off" in those fights? I would venture to say its a combination of the two. Also of much importance in this match-up is the size difference. Baby Jay is a natural lightweight who has fought at welterweight. Hughes is a pure welterweight who could conceivably fight at middleweight if he chose to. Matt has been quoted as saying that he was "licking his chops when Dana White offered him a fight with a '55er". I can see why that would be the case. Hughes is getting BJ at the perfect time in their respective careers. BJ has reportedly barely made 170 for this fight while Matt is cutting weight to get there. Come fight time, Hughes might easily be 15-20 pounds heavier than BJ.
As both fighters have stated, this fight will be won by whichever fighter can impose their will and gameplan. Both fighters are coming into this fight with vast differences in size, fighting style, overall skillsets, strategy, recent career success and sources of motivation. That's what makes this as great a fight as it will undoubtedly play out to be in the cage. And on top of all that, these guys do not like each other at all! They definitely respect each other, but there is definitely no love there!
Speaking of love, you have to love a good rubber match and this is going to be one of the best! Enjoy it, I know I am!
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