Monday, October 4, 2010

"The Answer" is YES!


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If "The Answer" is, YES, then what's the question? Well, there are actually two.

Is the BJ Penn era of lightweight dominance over?
Is Frankie Edgar a Top 5 pound-for pound fighter?

As a longtime fan of BJ Penn it was both somewhat depressing and very surprising to see him lose two fights in a row. Especially since they were at LW! Even more surprising was that it was to the same fighter. No doubt, Frankie Edgar is BJ's kryptonite, but is the story deeper than that?
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BJ is not an old fighter, but he has fought a lot over his storied career. Has 10 years of pro MMA training and fighting taken their toll on him? If so, it seems to be more mentally than physically. The Prodigy is only 32 years old and realistically should be entering the prime of his fighting career. Everyone has their own motivations. For BJ, money has never been one of them. He comes from a very successful family and doesn't need to make money from fighting. His drive always seemed to be to prove that he is the very best fighter in the world. Arguably, he did that at different times in his career. That's why seeing his rather mundane performance in the Edgar rematch was so shocking and disheartening.
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Is the fire gone?

At the start of the second fight, BJ looked very focused and determined. Once he saw that Frankie wasn't just going to go away easily, his whole demeanor changed. I'm not taking anything away from Frankie Edgar. He put on two phenomenal, back to back performances against a fighter not many people expected him to beat. No one gave Frankie a legit chance to win that first fight. Meanwhile, it was that first win that gave life to the second one, the same way the first loss for BJ seemed to plant seeds of doubt in his sometimes fragile psyche. The power of the mind can't be overlooked here. Besides his physical gifts, Frankie has shown he is very strong mentally. Unlike most fighters, he never showed the slightest bit of doubt or fear in the cage with BJ. In the process, he has undoubtedly proven to be the best lightweight MMA fighter on the planet. There's a couple of fighters outside the UFC that might disagree with that assessment, but right now, Frankie is the best.
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While BJ has dominated the majority of his LW opponents, Frankie was never in any trouble in 10 rounds and 50 minutes of fighting him. He ran the table on BJ in his first defense, pitching a shutout and winning all 5 rounds on all the judges' scorecards. Frankie isn't a big LW either, walking around at only a bit heavier than his fighting weight of 155. That makes his control of BJ even more impressive. We've seen GSP dominate BJ, but Georges is a much bigger fighter than Frankie is. No lightweight has shown that level of wrestling and almost effortless takedowns against BJ like Frankie has. He's not just a fantastic wrestler either. His striking is very proficient and getting better at a rapid pace, especially defensively. Frankie's footwork is second to none. His feet are constantly moving and working angles for strikes and TD set-ups. His head movement is also top notch. That's what seemed to frustrate BJ so much. All that movement prevented him from landing anything clean and significant. The longer both fights wore on, the more BJ's frustration grew. In this age of excessive weight cutting, what Frankie has done and accomplished is nothing short of amazing.
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As far as the rest of the UFC LW division goes, Frankie is clearly in a very good position. His next defense is a rematch with Gray Maynard, who happens to be the only fighter to beat him in 14 fights. Gray pulled out a decision victory at UFC Fight Night 13 in April of 2008. Things have definitively changed in the last 17 months and will be decidedly different the next time around. The Bully will try to bully the champ but in order for that to happen, he has to actually get close to him. That's not going to happen. Frankie's vastly superior speed will be the determining factor in the fight. Beyond Gray, no one in the division seems to have the skillset to really threaten the champ's reign, but there's a couple of fighters lingering outside the UFC who could make things interesting. Bellator's current LW champion, Eddie Alvarez, and Strikeforce's LW champion, Gilbert Hernandez, are two fighters that I'd love to see Edgar fight. We can wish, can't we?!?

Lots of new questions surround Baby Jay:

Will this second loss to Edgar send him into career purgatory?
Will he have the desire to continue fighting without immediate title implications being involved?
Is there a chance of him going back to WW?
Will he eventually leave the UFC for another promotion?
Will he hang up the gloves completely?

We'll get some of these questions answered in the coming days, weeks and months. It was recently announced that BJ will be fighting a rubber match with welterweight legend, Matt Hughes. He soundly beat Hughes in their first fight and was beating him again in the second until suffering a debilitating rib injury. This third fight should be very interesting and its outcome will play a huge role in the direction of BJ's career thereafter.

One thing we do know is, BJ Penn is a warrior who fights for the love of fighting. The question is, does he still love it as much as he ever did and enough to still do what is required to compete at the most elite level? Time will tell, but at anything less than 100%, both mentally and physically, he will lose to the seemingly rejuvinated Hughes.
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The other thing we do know is this; Frankie Edgar is the best lightweight fighter in the world right now, and looks like he will be for the forseeable future.

Hail the new king!

Edit: This was written the day after UFC 118 in the car on the ride back to NYC from Boston. In the whirlwind that is my life, I completely forgot about it. I found it today in the memo app on my phone. Don't ask!


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